The Pashtun Concept of Jihad and the U.S. Dilemma in Afghanistan-Pakistan
Posted by dougnoll in Uncategorized on March 5, 2010
The problems the US faces in Afghanistan with the Pastun-Tajik conflicts seem more regional in nature than local. Pakistan is in deep conflict with India over ideological, cultural, identity, political, and geographical (Kashmir) issues. Since Pakistan and India have nuclear knives at each other’s throats, Pakistan has a vested interest in keeping Afghanistan destabilized. Thus, Pakistan, while happy to take the billions in military aid provided the US each year, is loathe to rein in the Taliban. Losing control of the Pashtun-dominated federal tribal areas in the northwest of Pakistan would be a big problem for Pakistan. It seems that the best long term US strategy is to focus on building peace between India and Pakistan, allowing Pakistanis to determine what kind of democracy, if any, they really want, and then sort out Afghanistan. In the meantime, the US should maintain the least amount of presence necessary for stability and security in Afghanistan. As Afzal Kahn notes, the US should spend time and resources understanding the Pashtun culture and work with that knowledge to bridge peace. Despite these needs, I am afraid that the polarization of US domestic politics will lead to short-sighted quick fix policies rather than long term perspectives over the next 25-50 years. Those policies have in the past, and will in the future, only bring war and violence rather than peace and stability to this region of the world.
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The Manhattan Peace Process on Israel and Palestine
Posted by dougnoll in Uncategorized on January 18, 2010
In reading Betwa Sharma’s story of an Israeli-Palestinian dialogue facilitated by Marcia Kannry in New York City, I am struck again by the failure of process. In this dialogue, as reported, a Palestinian woman< Ms. Rahsid, is complaining. To characterize a bomb attack on a Palestinian bus as an "operation," she says, is unacceptable and dehumanizing to her. Instead of stopping the conversation right there to explore this statement more deeply, the dialogue participants jumped in. An Israeli woman was apparently personally offended and the conflict cycle engaged. Ms. Kannry missed the moment. I see this so often in Israeli-Palestinian dialogues. The same cycle is poignantly depicted in the documentary "To Die for Jerusalem," and is repeated countless times wherever Israelis and Palestinians meet. What is needed are deeper skills to help these people process and work through their grief, anger, humiliation, and frustration. Facilitated dialogues hold excellent potential for reconciliation and understanding in the Israeli and Palestinian civic societies. To prevent conflict escalation, facilitators should be thinking about processes that engage participants, especially in moments of provocation or high emotion. Until we up the game, the results of the dialogues will continue to mirror the results of the political negotiations: stalemate, frustration, and blame.
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‘The Empathic Civilization’: Rethinking Human Nature in the Biosphere Era
Posted by dougnoll in Uncategorized on January 17, 2010
Mr. Rifkin has correctly stated the false assumption of modernity and post-modernity: that humans are rational, self-interested actors and international relations is a collective of rational state actors seeking to maximize national utility. He misses the mark, however, in thinking that mirror neurons, part of the neural substrate of human empathy, is the key to global change. We humans have evolved many emotional systems in our brains, many of which are barely understood. These systems work out solutions to the environment, social or physical, that cause them to metaphorically conflict and argue amongst themselves. In other words, the human brain is not some computer than churns out answers in responses to information. It is an extraordinarily complex biological system that allows for fast adaptability to environments that change right around it. Our brains have many limitations as well, known as cognitive biases, that shape and distort how we view the world and make decisions. Our brains have a rapid response fear reaction system that causes us to judge everything as good or bad at a primitive level. Instead of hoping that our mirror neuron systems will kick in to save us, maybe we would be better served understanding how the emotional and cognitive systems of our brains limit us, and begin working on realistic solutions with those limitations in mind.
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Iran Is Burning in Revolution; Not Recognizing It Can Lead to Calamity
Posted by dougnoll in Uncategorized on December 28, 2009
The continuing protests in Iran show that people can only tolerate autocracy for so long. With the irrepressible advantage of instant mass communication via the Internet and social networking, protests can be assembled quickly and efficiently before the government security forces can intervene. The Iranian people are taking advantage of this power in a unique way. Can the Iranian people translate this ability to self-organize into a sustainable regime change? Assuming the government is toppled, can the people choose more representative, liberal-style form of government? Their past choices suggest a contrary track record–Iranians have lived under one form of autocracy or another for the past 100 years. No matter the temptation to do otherwise, the international community’s role in the unfolding of the next form of government should be by invitation only. However, the international community can prepare now to respond to any invitation by thinking and planning for the possible range of possibilities. An organized effort to think about the possible futures of Iran carefully assembled and properly introduced to the world could offer hope and support without taking sides or appearing interventionist.
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Congress-Please Wake Up on Climate Change
Posted by dougnoll in change, climate, Congress, Copenhagen, election, jobs, leadership, Obama, unemployment on December 18, 2009
Congress, please wake up. Climate change is here, it’s real, and it’s about to hammer us if we don’t take immediate action. I know that Detroit is suffering from 50% unemployment. I know that there are not many other happy places in the U.S. economically. I happen to live in one of the deepest poverty regions of the country, the San Joaquin Valley. However, the depression will pass. Climate change will not pass and is apparently not subject to economic cycles. If we, as a nation, do not take leadership on this, we could be facing the mother of all economic depressions a lot sooner than anyone expects.
I appreciate the fact that Representatives must face re-election every two years and that their job security rests on their ability to convince the voters in their districts that they are protecting local financial, economic, and legal interests. The larger problem of climate change calls for a different type of leadership, however. Instead of reacting to your neighbors, friends, and supporters at home, can you, members of Congress, unify and lead those people? Can you educate yourselves on the facts, not the polemics, of climate change? Can you be public stewards and resist insistent, parochial demands for quick fixes, jobs, money, safety, and security? Can you help the people accept the need for dramatic changes in energy use when the medicine tastes bad? Can you look at the problem of climate change in terms other than a zero-sum, distributive, winner-take-all political competition or negotiation? Can you instead look at climate change as an opportunity to collaborate, to invest in new technologies, to create jobs that have never existed before, and to rebuild our national infrastructure? Can you resist the lobbyists for the extraction industries that seek to continue business in the same patterns that have created the environmental crisis we now face? Can you face up to the fact that this is not Republican vs. Democrat political gamesmanship?
If you cannot, the conflicts, fights, disputes, and wars will be like none you have ever seen as people around the world fight for food,water, and arable land. If you cannot, the depression of 2007-2010 will seem like a mild economic correction compared to the potential devastation of a collapsed world economy. If you cannot, the plaintive cries of your constituents will turn to screams of anger at you, demanding that you answer why you did not take action sooner. Look into the future. You can see what is coming–it is a locomotive heading right at us. Will you slow it down or will you allow it to crush us all?
Please wake up and take action.
Obama’s First Year: A Nobel Effort
Posted by dougnoll in Uncategorized on December 11, 2009
I have read the American Grand Strategy report pertaining to the Israeli/Palestinian conflict. The students make the statement “Obama’s major policy error has been his demand of Israel to freeze all settlement building.” I believe this is a grave error of analysis. The history of the region has created a deep mythology for both the Israelis and the Palestinians that reinforces a social identity around the sacredness of Jerusalem and the sacredness of the land. Israeli settlements in the West Bank, regardless of motive, have been seen for decades as deeply disrespectful of the Palestinian right to autonomy. For decades, the Palestinians have asserted that Israel must conform to UN Resolution 242. Israeli settlements have been in derogation of this assertion, whether legal or not. In addition, the settlements have created a checkerboard in the West Bank that makes the possibility of a unified Palestinian state very difficult to create. A cynical person might say that this has been by conscious design of succeeding Israeli governments. At the very least, settlements have appeased the ultra-conservative fundamentalist Jews that have seized the moral and sacred high ground in the debate around peace with the Palestinians. Thus, if an acceptable peace is to occur, settlement construction will have to stop. President Obama is therefore correct in making that a cornerstone of his administration’s policy toward the conflict.
Read the Article at HuffingtonPost